Dementia set to become third leading cause of global mortality by 2040, yet remains neglected in health policy
New research published in Nature Reviews Neurology reveals that dementia will become the world’s third leading cause of death by 2040, surpassed only by ischaemic heart disease and stroke, yet continues to be overlooked in major health policy frameworks and resource allocation.
Paola Barbarino, CEO Alzheimer’s Disease International
Urgent call for policy reform
Leading researchers from Alzheimer’s Disease International (ADI) and the London School of Economics have highlighted a critical disconnect in global health policy, where dementia is largely excluded from non-communicable disease (NCD) frameworks despite its projected devastating impact. The analysis reveals that dementia will rank among the top five causes of death in 121 countries and become the leading cause of mortality in 19 nations by 2040.
Impact on global health systems
The research demonstrates that dementia will become the fifth leading cause of years of life lost globally by 2040, following only ischaemic heart disease, stroke, lower respiratory infections and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. This projection challenges the widespread misconception that dementia is merely an end-of-life condition affecting only the elderly.
Systematic policy exclusion
The study identifies concerning gaps in major health policy frameworks. ADI CEO Paola Barbarino notes: “Unlike other non-communicable diseases like cardiovascular disease, cancer, and diabetes, dementia does not receive the same funding or level of inclusion in health policy.”
The researchers point to several recent high-level policy documents that have overlooked dementia, including the WHO’s February 2024 draft report on NCD emergency preparedness, which failed to address the unique vulnerabilities of dementia patients during humanitarian crises.
Prevention and intervention opportunities
The research emphasises that up to 45 per cent of dementia cases could potentially be delayed or prevented through targeted interventions. However, the authors argue that the continued exclusion of dementia from NCD frameworks undermines efforts to implement risk-reduction strategies and discourages resource allocation for both pharmacological and non-pharmacological treatments.
Future implications
The paper warns that without proactive measures, health and long-term care systems worldwide will be unprepared for the projected increase in prevalence and mortality by 2040. The authors stress that the impact will extend beyond the older population, affecting society broadly, particularly through the burden on family and informal caregivers.
“We can’t let dementia diagnosis, treatment and support slip through the cracks because of this belief. As rates of dementia continue to spiral, it’s more important than ever that international leaders move quickly to create adequate policies and systems to support the millions living with dementia,” says Barbarino.
The researchers conclude that ignoring the growing challenge of dementia and remaining unprepared would be “unforgivable” given the projected impact and available evidence.
Reference:
Arthurton, L., Barbarino, P., Anderson, R., et. al. (2024). Dementia is a neglected noncommunicable disease and leading cause of death. Nature Reviews Neurology. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41582-024-01051-w
