Polar physical changes pose significant global health threats beyond melting ice
Researchers present a comprehensive framework linking Arctic and Antarctic transformations to worldwide disease burden, from vector-borne illnesses to cardiovascular mortality, urging urgent interdisciplinary action to integrate polar tipping points into health impact assessments and clinical preparedness strategies.
Climate change in Earth’s polar regions represents an underexplored yet critical driver of global health risks, with cascading effects extending far beyond the Arctic and Antarctic, according to new research published in Ambio.
An international team led by Professor Gail Whiteman from the University of Exeter Business School has developed a novel conceptual framework mapping pathways through which polar physical changes amplify health risks. Their scoping review of 89 peer-reviewed studies reveals that current climate models systematically underestimate health consequences of polar transformations.
“Polar change is not a distant crisis,” said Netra Naik, research fellow at Arctic Basecamp and lead author. “Our review of the research shows that melting ice sheets, rising sea levels and shifting weather patterns have complex consequences that extend far beyond the Arctic and Antarctic – affecting food security, disease burden and health infrastructure.”
Cardiovascular and renal disease burden escalating
The Arctic is warming at approximately four times the global average. The authors note this warming may contribute to increased frequency of severe El Niño episodes, worsening heatwaves especially across tropical areas. Cardiovascular mortality increases by 2.1% per 1°C rise, equating to approximately 376,000 additional deaths worldwide. Heat stress nephropathy, a form of chronic kidney disease from repeated heat exposure, emerges as a global concern.
In 2023, extreme heat contributed to a 167% surge in heat-related deaths amongst people over 65. Each 1°C mean temperature increase associates with 1% rise in early-term births, approximately 134,000 additional preterm births worldwide.
Sea level rise contaminating water supplies
By 2050, 41 nations are projected to experience inland saltwater intrusion extending at least 1 kilometre. “This salinity rise has also been linked to a range of health challenges, notably pregnancy complications such as pre-eclampsia and postpartum infant morbidity,” the authors write. Rising sea levels increase salt concentration in aquifers, causing arsenic release into water supplies, thereby increasing cancer likelihood.
Vector-borne diseases expanding into new territories
Polar warming fundamentally alters disease ecology globally. Warmer temperatures enable vectors to thrive in new regions, driving malaria to higher altitudes in Colombia and Ethiopia, and facilitating outbreaks of dengue, chikungunya, Japanese encephalitis and West Nile virus. By 2050, dengue is projected to expand into Amsterdam, Berlin, London and Stockholm.
Milder winters followed by cold snaps with reduced snow cover in subarctic Finland and Sweden lead to increased nephropathia epidemica outbreaks, a hantavirus infection causing fever, kidney dysfunction and flu-like symptoms.
Arctic communities face compounded threats
Arctic populations, approximately 4 million people of whom 10% are Indigenous groups, already face high rates of chronic conditions and food insecurity. Permafrost thaw releases harmful biological, chemical including mercury and radioactive substances, contaminating water, soil and food chains. Communities dependent on marine mammals face heightened risks including neurological disorders, cognitive dysfunctions and immune impairments.
Permafrost thaw may release dormant viruses including the 1918 influenza virus and Anthrax spores. Ocean warming and acidification challenge key species such as oysters, clams and fish, reducing food provision whilst negatively affecting mental health.
Extreme weather amplifying disease transmission
Arctic warming weakens the jet stream, causing prolonged extreme weather. Flooding contaminates water sources, increasing cholera, Vibrio vulnificus infections and leptospirosis. Flooding caused over 100,000 pregnancy losses annually across 33 countries from 2010 to 2020. Arctic wildfire frequency tripled from 2001–2010 to 2011–2020, releasing particulate matter contributing to 25,000–55,000 premature deaths annually.
Rising temperatures beyond 3°C link to anxiety, depression and suicide increases, with 2% increase in mental health problems associated with cumulative 1°C temperature rise over five years. Displacement disrupts cultural practices amongst Indigenous populations, leading to anxiety, depression and identity loss.
Urgent call for interdisciplinary collaboration
“Ignoring these potential drivers of disease and death is not an option,” said Professor Whiteman. “We need stronger international collaboration between climate scientists, health professionals, and data experts to prevent harm and prepare our systems for the challenges ahead.”
The study forms part of the “Effects of Polar Climate Change on Global Health and Healthcare” project, conducted by the University of Exeter, Arctic Basecamp and the World Economic Forum, funded by the Wellcome Trust.
Reference
Naik, N., Bot, K., Whiteman, G., et. al (2025). A framework for assessing global health impacts of polar change: An urgent call for interdisciplinary research. Ambio. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-025-02255-0 Published online: 7 November 2025
