Breast cancer deaths set to rise in elderly EU women despite overall decline
New research shows cancer mortality rates across Europe will fall in 2025, with breast cancer deaths decreasing significantly in all age groups except women aged 80+ in the EU, where rates will rise by nearly 10%. Experts link this concerning trend to limited screening and less access to modern treatments for older women, while obesity rates further contribute to increased risk.
Mortality projections reveal sharp divide in elderly care outcomes
Cancer mortality in Europe is expected to continue its favourable downward trend in 2025, according to a new study published in the journal Annals of Oncology, with notable improvements in most cancer types across the European Union and UK. However, the research has identified a concerning pattern in breast cancer mortality among elderly EU women.
The study, led by Professor Carlo La Vecchia from the University of Milan, predicts that breast cancer death rates will fall in 2025 in every age group in the EU and UK – with one critical exception. For EU patients aged 80 years and older, mortality rates are projected to rise by nearly 10% compared to rates observed between 2015-2019.
In stark contrast, the UK is expected to see a 7% decrease in breast cancer mortality in this elderly age group, while Spain shows a 4% reduction.
“Elderly women are not covered by screening and probably are less favourably affected by the substantial advances in breast cancer management, including improvements in chemo- and hormone therapy, such as trastuzumab and related drugs, but also in radiotherapy and surgery,” explained Professor La Vecchia.
“The increased prevalence of overweight and obesity over the last few decades in most of northern and central Europe has led to an increased risk of breast cancer. In the elderly, this has not been counter-balanced by improved diagnosis and management. This accounts for the increased mortality in people aged 80 and over.”
Comprehensive cancer forecast shows mixed picture
The research team analysed cancer death rates in the EU’s 27 Member States as a whole and separately in the UK, looking at the five most populous EU countries (France, Germany, Italy, Poland and Spain) individually for major cancer types. They collected data on deaths from the World Health Organization and United Nations databases from 1970 to 2021 for most countries.
Overall, the projections for 2025 show continued improvements in cancer mortality:
- In the EU: Age standardised death rates for all cancers will fall by 3.5% for men and 1% for women since 2020
- In the UK: More substantial reductions of 10% for men and 6% for women are expected
Despite these improving rates, the absolute number of cancer deaths will rise due to population growth and ageing. The researchers predict approximately 1,280,000 cancer deaths in the EU and 173,000 in the UK for 2025.
Death rates from most cancers are expected to fall, but certain types show troubling exceptions:
- Pancreatic cancer: Increasing by 2% in men and 3% in women in the EU
- Lung cancer: Rising by nearly 4% in EU women
- Bladder cancer: Increasing by nearly 2% in EU women
Professor Eva Negri from the University of Bologna, co-leader of the research, highlighted smoking as a critical risk factor: “Smoking remains by far the major recognised cause of pancreatic cancer, accounting for 20 to 35% of cases in various populations and age groups, according to their different smoking habits. Diabetes, being overweight and developing the metabolic syndrome account for around 5% of pancreatic cancers in Europe.”
Deaths averted through medical advances
The researchers calculated that between 1988 and 2025, approximately 6.8 million cancer deaths will have been avoided in the EU and 1.5 million in the UK, assuming constant rates at 1988 levels.
For breast cancer specifically, they estimate that 373,000 deaths have been avoided in the EU and 197,000 in the UK. The researchers attribute 70-75% of these avoided deaths to improved management and therapy, while 25-30% are likely due to more widespread screening and early diagnosis.
“Given that breast cancer is now a largely curable cancer that requires modern integrated approaches, it is essential that all diagnoses of breast cancer are referred to comprehensive cancer centres, which can offer the complete range of therapies that might be required,” added Professor La Vecchia.
The research team concluded: “EU breast cancer rates have fallen by 30% since 1990, due to advances in prevention, treatment, and early detection. Contrasting trends in lung cancer among males and females reflect differing tobacco smoking patterns. Female lung cancer mortality is still increasing in the EU, though less than in the previous decade. Persistent unfavourable pancreatic cancer trends can be related to the increasing prevalence of obesity and limited therapeutic advances, requiring continued attention.”
Prevention priorities
The researchers emphasize that to maintain and improve the favourable trends in cancer mortality across Europe, tobacco control must remain a high priority. With 24% smoking prevalence reported for the EU in 2023, continued strong action on tobacco control is essential.
Additionally, addressing the increasing prevalence of overweight and obesity, alongside controlling alcohol consumption and optimising population screening for early detection of cervical, breast and colorectal cancer, remain key strategies for further reducing cancer mortality.
Reference:
Santucci, C., Mignozzi, S., Levi, F., et. al. (2025). European cancer mortality predictions for the year 2025 with focus on breast cancer. Annals of Oncology. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.annonc.2025.01.014
